Real estate market forecast - May 2024

The real estate market continues to improve. April figures confirm not only a slight increase in prices but also a significant rise in activity. In the greater Montreal area, the number of real estate transactions in April increased by 26% compared to the same period last year. The median price also rose, with a 7% increase for single-family homes and a 3% increase for condos compared to the previous year. Since March of this year, the price of single-family homes has increased by 3% (remaining unchanged for condos). This confirms a slow but steady market rise. However, the good news, especially for buyers, is the return of a diverse range of choices. The number of active listings has increased by 20% compared to 2023, marking a notable improvement. The market finally seems to be returning to a certain normalcy.

Our forecasts remain positive, even though most of the prediction for the entire year of 2024 has already materialized. The much-anticipated rate cuts are expected to begin in June. The only shadow on the horizon is the economic situation in the United States, where the economy appears to be slowing while inflation, unlike in Canada, shows no signs of abating. It is hard to imagine a radically different monetary policy between the two neighboring countries. Thus, persistent inflation in the United States could slow the pace of rate cuts in Canada.

The low rate of new construction, combined with the downward trend in interest rates and a severe property shortage, will continue to push the market upwards.