Inventory Drops and Buyers Return in TMR. But for How Long?

Inventory: the real turning point of late 2025

In fall 2025, we were close to 110 to 115 properties on the market. A level not seen since 2012–2015. Plenty of supply. A more cautious macroeconomic climate. Selective buyers.

Then, in December, the unexpected shift.

Between December 1 and the end of January, nearly 48 properties were withdrawn or expired. And only about ten have come back since.

The result: about 40 properties out of the game.

Inventory contracted quickly. We went from a market with more than 110 properties to a level of around 60 active listings.

And in the Town of Mount Royal, historically, below 80 properties, the market generally tips in favour of sellers.

Early 2026: an awakening driven by scarcity

One might have expected a slow winter. Cold temperatures. Fewer showings. Patience.

The opposite happened.

Why?

Because several sellers preferred to withdraw rather than concede on price. Those who stayed active now find themselves facing less direct competition.

The practical consequence:

• Properties that had few showings in the fall are now attracting interest.
• Multiple offers are reappearing.
• Prices don't always exceed the asking price… but the conditions are improving.
• Fewer concessions.
• Better terms.
• Shorter closing timelines.

In a competitive market, price is one variable. Conditions, however, become strategic.

The real test: March and April

The question now is simple.

Will the ~40 withdrawn properties come back in the spring?

If a large share returns at the same time, inventory could climb quickly and rebalance the market.

If the return is gradual, or limited, scarcity could persist. And extend the current dynamic:

• More active showings
• Multiple offers on desirable properties
• An environment more favourable to well-positioned sellers

What does this mean in practical terms?

For sellers

The current market rewards:

• A clear product
• Impeccable condition
• A strategic location
• A price consistent with the positioning

The advantage isn't only the price. It's the quality of the conditions and the likelihood that the deal closes. In a multiple-offer environment, the structure of an offer can be worth as much as the amount.

For buyers

The market is becoming competitive again faster than expected.

The window of opportunity will depend on the spring:

• If inventory climbs back up → more room to negotiate.
• If it stays around sixty → a strategic approach is a must.

In summary

2025 was held back by macroeconomic uncertainty and a more cautious pool of buyers.But the end of the year brought a surprise: a rapid drop in inventory, caused mainly by withdrawals.

This supply shock, combined with the REM's positive effect on market perception, explains the awakening observed in the middle of winter. 2026 won't be defined by January. It will be defined by the spring.

And in the Town of Mount Royal, spring often writes the rest of the year.